items:forecasting

Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revision Previous revision
Next revision		 Previous revision
items:forecasting [2024/11/01 16:45] – Gary Willettsitems:forecasting [2024/11/04 13:11] (current) – [Where does mSupply use forecasts?] Gary Willetts
Line 1: Line 1:
 {{indexmenu_n>420}} {{indexmenu_n>420}}
 ====== 4.21. Forecasting ====== ====== 4.21. Forecasting ======
-Forecasting is the art of determining how much stock to order to minimise stockouts (no stock available) and stock expiring before it is used. 
- 
-mSupply has a few tools to help you wwith this. 
- 
-More information coming on this page soon. 
- 
 <WRAP center round important 60%> <WRAP center round important 60%>
 In mSupply, 'consumption' is defined as stock that is **//issued//**.  Stock lost due to damage, expiry, etc. is managed through [[items:inventory_adjustments|Inventory Adjustments]] and **is not** included in 'consumption'.  During the later quantification calculation, there are options to include or exclude [[issuing_goods:transferring_goods_to_another_store|Stock Transfers]] and [[items:manufactured_items|Builds]] in the consumption calculation. In mSupply, 'consumption' is defined as stock that is **//issued//**.  Stock lost due to damage, expiry, etc. is managed through [[items:inventory_adjustments|Inventory Adjustments]] and **is not** included in 'consumption'.  During the later quantification calculation, there are options to include or exclude [[issuing_goods:transferring_goods_to_another_store|Stock Transfers]] and [[items:manufactured_items|Builds]] in the consumption calculation.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
-By default, mSupply uses the assumption that future consumption will continue at the same level as consumption over a given historic period.   Our experience is that in almost all situations, this method, combined with a conservative provision for buffer stock, yields very good to excellent results.  However, in certain situations you will want to provide your own forecasts. Reasons for this could include factors such as:+Forecasting is the art of determining how much stock to order to minimise stockouts (no stock available) and stock expiring before it is used. It requires you to use the information you have on past stock consumption and availability patterns to estimate what will happen in the future. 
 + 
 +mSupply has a few tools to help you with this. For a full description of them, please see the details of the various places where forecasting is used in mSupply: 
 + 
 +  * [[purchasing:ordering_from_suppliers#creating_a_new_calculated_purchase_order|6.01. Ordering stock from suppliers]] - when creating a new auto-generated purchase order. This page contains a discussion of the various calculation stages that go into working out the amount to order. 
 +  * [[reports:purchasing#suggested_order_quantities|13.04. Purchasing reports]] - when creating a Suggested order report. This page discusses the details of the options for calculating an item's AMC (Average Monthly Consumption). 
 +  * [[tender_management:introduction#new_generated_tender_auto-generation|18.01. Introduction to tender management]] - when creating a new auto-generated tender. This page refers to the two pages above for detail. 
 + 
 + 
 +Normally, mSupply is set to use the assumption that future consumption will continue at the same level as consumption over a given historic period. Our experience is that in almost all situations, this method, combined with a conservative provision for buffer stock, yields very good to excellent results. However, in certain situations you will want to provide your own forecasts. Reasons for this could include factors such as:
   * Excessive, sudden population increase   * Excessive, sudden population increase
   * An epidemic causing increased demand   * An epidemic causing increased demand
Line 18: Line 21:
   * Morbidity and mortality data has been obtained and used to calculate requirements.   * Morbidity and mortality data has been obtained and used to calculate requirements.
  
-/*===== Worked Example ===== +When these situations arise then you can fine-tune how mSupply calculates the AMC for each item individually. For details on this functionality, see the [[items:item_basics:tab_usage]] page.
- +
-To illustrate forecasting and [[purchasing:ordering_from_suppliers|quantification for purchase orders]], a worked example will be used.  In our worked example, we have monthly consumptions of Amoxycillin 250mg tabs/caps over a two year period of May 2013 - Apr 2015 as shown in the table below: +
- +
-^   Month   ^   2013   ^   2014   ^   2015   ^   +
-^ Jan  |    |   461,700 |   638,600 |   +
-^ Feb  |    |   109,700 |   321,000 |   +
-^ Mar  |    |   290,000 |   1,152,000 |   +
-^ Apr  |    |   274,000 |   398,000 |   +
-^ May  |   657,284 |   248,000 |    |   +
-^ Jun  |   147,400 |   666,000 |    |   +
-^ Jul  |   764,400 |   1,313,100 |    |   +
-^ Aug  |   310,210 |   683,500 |    |   +
-^ Sep  |   417,080 |   852,200 |    |   +
-^ Oct  |   504,000 |   684,100 |    |   +
-^ Nov  |   764,200 |   639,000 |    |   +
-^ Dec  |   767,642 |   491,000 |    |   +
- +
- +
-From the data above, we can see that the Average Monthly Consumption (AMC) for Amoxycillin 250mg tabs/caps over historic periods are:+
  
-^  Period  ^  AMC  ^   
-^Last 24 months (May 2014 - Apr 2015)  |   564,755|   
-^Last 12 months (May 2014 - Apr 2015)  |   673,875|   
-^Last 6 months (Nov 2014 - Apr 2015)  |   593,326|   
-*/ 
  
  
-===== Where does mSupply use forecasts? ===== 
-Any time mSupply produces a suggested order quantity, it will consider each item and use the forecast options for that item to produce a forecast. This includes: 
-  * [[tender_management:introduction#creating_a_new_tender|Creating a new tender]] 
-  * [[reports:purchasing#suggested_order_quantities|The suggested order report]] 
-  * [[purchasing:ordering_from_suppliers#creating_a_new_calculated_purchase_order|Creating a new purchase order]] 
 \\ \\
 \\ \\
  • Last modified: 2024/11/01 16:45
  • by Gary Willetts